February 26th, 2020 | Written By - Jac Ullman '21
You’re likely aware that the UK has formally left the European Union (EU). Brexit was supposed to happen in March 2019; nearly a year and three Prime Ministers later, it was (technically) completed on January 31, 2020 after Parliament’s new Conservative majority finally approved Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. The process is not done, however: UK-EU negotiations will begin by March 1, a trade deal is due on November 26, and other discussions will be ongoing. The UK maintains its current relations with the EU until a transition period ends on December 31. I won’t go into detail about the background and purpose for Britain leaving the EU (if you’re interested, the BBC has excellent resources for this), but here are some of the potential international consequences of Brexit.
The UK’s economy will have to change drastically as it leaves the EU single market and customs union, which allows easy travel and tariff-free trade (that is, without extra taxes on imports and exports) between EU members. The UK and EU are hoping to negotiate a free trade agreement, though they differ on how it should work; if a deal doesn’t happen in time, the UK would face high tariffs on exports to the EU, causing economic challenges for both.
The trade deal (or lack thereof) is a particular problem for the Irish border. Currently, people and products can move easily between Northern Ireland (UK) and the Republic of Ireland because both are EU members. There is a consensus that this border should remain more or less open. The Irish Sea trade border, separating England and Scotland from the island of Ireland, is more contentious. The apparent solution is that Northern Ireland (as with the rest of the UK) will not technically remain an EU member, but that it will function, for the most part, under EU trade and customs agreements. This is problematic for commerce between England/Scotland and Northern Ireland: what happens to an EU-adjacent Northern Ireland under a EU-UK trade deal? This remains to be seen.
According to the BBC (2018), about 60% of British trade is with EU members or countries with EU trade deals. This is facilitated by the EU’s single market, but it is possible to have a similar economic relationship by means of a free trade agreement. It’s highly unlikely, however, that new tariffs and other restrictions won’t impact EU-UK commerce. Countries can (and will) use this renegotiation as an opportunity to push their own interests, both economic and cultural; an example of this is the developing controversy over repatriation of the Elgin Marbles, ancient artifacts that were taken from Greece over 200 years ago. Without its EU membership, the UK has lost much of its protection and power in international affairs, which was supported largely by its place in the European Union. While positive political relationships and free trade agreements may well be part of the future, Britain will likely see more challenges than benefits as negotiations continue.
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