May 31st, 2018
Written by - Daania Tahir '19
This is just a stockpile of all the current event updates that I sent out between April and May.
Italy election: Italy recently held an election a few weeks ago and their were some surprising (but unsurprising) outcomes. The nation welcomed populism. The two parties that saw the biggest success were the Five Star Movement and the Northern League. Two anti-establishment, anti-immigration parties. Both parties want to challenge the EU, enact some intense social reform and form better ties with Russia. The reason this is “surprising” is because Italy has been ruled by centrist politics for the past few years. But the reason that it is equally “unsurprising” is because of the trend towards populism seen in many European countries this year
Tariffs: Trump recently decided to place heavy tariffs on imports steel and aluminum, an act that has angered much of the international community and members of his own party. Many European nations along with the European central bank (and China I believe) have expressed their anger at his actions, surprised that an “ally is treating them like enemies”. In many ways he has begun a trade war that we might not be able to win, but who knows the economy is funky and I don’t fully understand it.
Eastern Ghouta: Bashar Al-Assad has captured Eastern Ghouta in Syria. The victims of this war, one that has escalated to involving huge geopolitical rivals as explained in my last update, are innocent civilians. Over 500 have died in Ghouta. A ceasefire was called, then broken almost immediately. The international community’s response, I believe, is a failure. They (and we as the US) are perpetuating this conflict, putting personal interests above lives.
Boko Haram : In 2014 about 276 children were abducted by Boko Haram in Nigeria. The problem has not been solved. In 2018 more girls continued to be captured with about 112 still missing. I personally believe that this issue is another example of a fault in the international communities priority. We fight a “war on terror” in the US, yet fail to realize that terrorism is prevalent in many other nation
China’s Tariffs: A few months (or weeks I don’t remember) back Trump placed some hefty tariffs on steel and aluminum. This caused a lot of backlash from our European allies and China. Now more specifically Trump has threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on about 1,000 Chinese imports (not sure about the stat exactly). China in response threatened to impose 50 billion dollars worth of tariffs on about 106 US imports. All these are threats and intents, nothing tangible has really happened but it is getting close.
Brazil President: A supreme court decision in Brazil could potentially lock up former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). He wanted to run again this year in elections but as more information came to light about his corruption scandals, he no longer could. I won’t go into all the scandals, but the people of Brazil have been calling for his arrest for years, so this decision is a huge step.
Syria Update: I’ve already explained the basis of the conflict in previous emails but it is an ever changing geopolitical landscape so here is a quick update. Iran, Russia, Turkey and the US recently had a summit meeting to discuss the situation in Syria. Basically they all agree on only one thing: terrorism cannot gain control of Syria once again. Great, except that they disagree on practically everything else. The United States power is waning in the region and as we slowly departure we leave behind a major power vacuum that nations will scramble to gain control over (mainly Iran and Russia). Beyond that we’re still at odds with Turkey of Kurdish rebels. So now Turkey is moving towards Russia as an ally. But Turkey is an opponent of Assad and Russia is a serious ally who unconditionally supports him. And Iran is at odds with Turkey and. And both Iran and Russia disagree over land claims. Clearly this issue seems to get more complicated as each nations tightly holds on to their own selfish interests.
Syria Airstrike:
This has been taking over almost every newsite. I will explain what occurred and then do a light analysis of some of the impacts on the situation. On Friday the US (with the support/aid of Britain and France) carried out airstrikes in Syria (not 100 percent sure of the exact targets). It was a response to the chemical weapons attack that occurred in Damascus. Okay pause. This chemical weapons attack is an entire situation of it's own. First, who initiated the attack is not clear. The US said it Assad, Britain said Russia was involved as as well, and Russia claimed that Britain orchestrated it saying they had "hard evidence". Not to mention the attack yet again reflects the failure (a bias term, but interesting to research) of Obama's Syria policy in 2014. Alright unpause. The US, France and Britain sent over 100 tomahawk missiles, hitting laboratories and suspected weapons facilities. Russia replied with some heated words, saying the US is basically destroying international relations and the state of Syria. Well they should also take a good look at themselves. Okay, I'll try and analyze both sides of the issue but know that there is a lot more info out there and this is a quick overview MAINLY FOCUSING ON US FOREIGN POLICY. A positive, looking broadly, is action. Trump essentially did what Obama failed, and crossed the "red line". We established our stance on chemical weapons, showed our manpower and could influence nations to rethink their actions. A negative is also action, looking more closely. The problem with the situation is that we aren't maintaining a consistent pattern of foreign policy in the region. A NYT article analyzed how essentially the US will be ineffective in creating change in Syria with one-time blows. Alright, except maintaining a military presence also might not be a good solution either (look at the US's history of presence in the Middle East: Afghanistan, Iraq). So that is a clear issue, really figuring out what our role is. We sent out these missiles for the purpose of saving lives in Syria, yet at home we've only let in 11 refugees. Our main purpose was defeating ISIS, so as they retreat, the more we struggle with our presence, our foreign policy goal, and our past mistakes in the Middle East. Especially with all these nations involved, the US also has to realize the risk of Russia and Iran expanding their hegemon in the Middle East. Furthermore, there is a critical problem with the term "red line". By making our "red line" these chemical weapons, we are essentially sending out the message that all the other horrid actions of Assad are okay, and that our intervention remains limited to these chemical attacks. He basically has the message that he can continue to fight the opposition in other means. The war in Syria is nowhere close to ending and is simply escalating. Escalating because of geopolitical rivalries (I'll do an update on them next time). It's a situation with no clear answer, and whose repercussions are innocent lives.
Iran Deal: The vote to dismantle the Iran deal is on May 12th, and it looks to me like it will be gone. Trump and a few of his close advisors seem set in stone, regardless of backlash from countless allies (specifically European). The deal is not a perfect one, Iran can start developing its nuclear program in 15 years, so it is very temporary and lacks permanence. Articles discuss how Iran is committing a lot of HR crimes, supporting terrorism and polarizing the Middle East, and thus the not pushing back against the deal is essentially the US being complacent to all Iran's wrongdoings. But the other side is that many don't see how any better deal could ever be made with a nation so opposite of us. Dismantling the deal will ultimately lead to to more destabilization in the Middle Eastern region, as Iran begins to develop nukes and Saudi Arabia (their mortal enemy) gets alarmed. Furthermore not only is it unlikely that Iran would want to form another deal, but it also ruin the US's legitimacy as a signatory in general.
North Korea and South Korea: One of my favorite topics! Well, the Korean war has "officially" ended with Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-in posing for peace. And, North Korea has agreed to stop testing nuclear weapons. It's great. Well. Not to be cynical (but I am), I wouldn't trust Kim Jong Un 110 percent. North Korea has made empty promises in the past, and he may just be throwing around these kind gestures in attempt to get some relief from sanctions. I mean he literally changed his entire mindset as fast a light switch. If you read his statements in February compared to now its like he went through some miraculous mental rejuvenation. But it was a historic moment for diplomacy. Buuuuutt I would also keep watching closely :).
Sudan Migration: Sudan's eastern border is one of the busiest passages for migration to Europe. In the past, just like Europe, it welcomed migrants freely with open arms. However, as populism and anti-immigrant sentiment rises in Europe, this nation and border has become grounds for exploitation. Essentially the EU is silently blocking off borders throughout the world (They have poured money into Turkey, a nation with a near dictator, and Libya as well). The EU is now feeding money to Sudan in attempt to control migration, money that many fear is going to end up the hands of the Sudanese secret police to crack down on migrants. It is evident through this that the problem of migration extends beyond the EU and branches into countless nations ordeals. It's a global problem with consequences I could never have imagined.
Russia Pipeline: Russia is planning to build a pipeline through Western Europe (I forgot the details) that will deliver clean energy efficiently (again I don't know the specifics). Now, Western Europe relies a lot on Russia for gas, which is kinda funny because of the insane ideological differences. It's a lot like the US relying on Saudi Arabia for oil. This pipeline is polarizing western Europe, for many leaders do not want it built, as they believe that Russia is going to use their reliance on energy as blackmail in the future. This is a real fear, and one that is dividing the EU. It's always interesting to read about energy reliance and the importance of energy independence for nations, especially in a future (hopefully) of renewable energy.
Iraq Election: Muqtada al-Sadr just won the Iraq election, an upset for the US. Sadr was fervently anti-American throughout the Iraq war, and actually led a militia group that fought American forces throughout the the 2003 invasion. With the US now working closely with Iraq (sharing intelligence and planning military missions) an anti-American leader could complicate things. So, clearly, the US is not a big fan of him. But there has been a shift in his mentality. A lot of Sadr's allies (including the ones who fought against us soldiers) want to continue to work with the US and want their (our idk) military presence. He is an ardent nationalist who ran on an "Iraq first" (sound familiar?) campaign. Negotiations for a coalition are going to continue so positions may shift.
Venezuela: Nicholas Maduro just got elected back into power in Venezuela. The election, of course, was a complete fraud to keep a dictator in power, as the US called it a "sham". Maduro has created a crisis in his nation, with the poor and middle-class not being able to pay for food and resources due to an insane economic crisis. As a result of this crisis, many Venezuelans are fleeing to neighboring countries such as Brazil, generating huge refugee issues in those nations themselves. Further, he has blocked out opposition parties, and firmly set himself into power. Countries across the world are thus struggling to figure out a solution and besides verbal condemnations, haven't taken real action.
Burundi: Pierre Nkurunziza is currently Burundi's president. Not just president but their longest serving one, and now for even longer. A referendum was recently held that extended the term limits of the president in Burundi, possibly allowing Nkurunziza to be in power till 2034 and onward. This has concerned many, for it reflects the autocratic governments of the Congo, Rwanda and Uganda, where leaders straight up disregarded and changed term limits, creating devastation in those nations.
North Korea: So remember the last update where I said be wary of North Korea. Yeah. Kim Jong Un, after putting up a face of cooperation, stated that North Korea refuses to ever trade away its nuclear weapon capability in exchange for economic aid. It was a "jarring shift in tone" as the NYT put it. So North Korea is still North Korea, and will hold onto its nukes quite intensely. So, beyond that, Trump has a summit meeting in Singapore next month sometime with Kim Jong Un that the administration is becoming concerned about and that he might pull out of. Also he has the precedent of the Iran deal to "live up to" in terms of negotiations with anti-America nuclear powers.
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